{"envelopeVersion":"1","kind":"monitor.watch_report","exportedAt":"2026-10-10T12:31:22.856347+00:00","asOf":"2026-10-10T12:31:22.817245+00:00","sourceRefs":{"period":"weekly"},"modelVersions":["tendency-engine-1.0.0"],"payload":{"period":"weekly","periodStart":"2026-10-03T12:31:22.817245+00:00","periodEnd":"2026-10-10T12:31:22.817245+00:00","asOf":"2026-10-10T12:31:22.817245+00:00","summary":{"watchesActive":2,"watchesTotal":2,"states":{"WEAKENING":1},"drift":{"OK":1,"WARN":0,"ALERT":0,"UNKNOWN":1},"transitions":0,"coverage":{"empirical":1,"insufficientData":2,"demo":0}},"items":[{"watchId":"84e634c8-537a-462f-ad4e-c20597f41c0e","relationshipRef":"proposal:c237b439-2996-48fd-bff2-843866384cb4","subjectRefs":["33333333-3333-3333-3333-333333333301","33333333-3333-3333-3333-333333333302"],"status":"ACTIVE","state":"WEAKENING","dataQuality":"PARTIAL","strength":0.286667,"breakProbability":0.602333,"driftSeverity":"OK","transitionCount":0,"coverage":{"expectedWindowHours":168.0,"observedWindowHours":null,"sourceCount":null,"sampleCount":1,"missingSegments":null,"staleDurationHours":887.9809,"dataQuality":"PARTIAL","state":"WEAKENING","replayHash":null,"empirical":true,"insufficientData":true,"asOf":"2026-10-10T12:31:22.817245+00:00","note":"Coverage is observational sufficiency. zero observations ≠ stable relationship; DEMO-only ≠ empirical day."},"createdAt":"2026-09-03T12:32:31.527737+00:00","note":"from proposal c237b439-2996-48fd-bff2-843866384cb4 · RESIDUAL_SPREAD"},{"watchId":"4be02dbc-cb40-4811-97d7-3756806ba2b4","relationshipRef":"smoke:pair","subjectRefs":["a","b"],"status":"ACTIVE","state":null,"dataQuality":null,"strength":null,"breakProbability":null,"driftSeverity":"UNKNOWN","transitionCount":0,"coverage":{"expectedWindowHours":168.0,"observedWindowHours":null,"sourceCount":null,"sampleCount":null,"missingSegments":null,"staleDurationHours":null,"dataQuality":"NO_DATA","state":null,"replayHash":null,"empirical":false,"insufficientData":true,"asOf":"2026-10-10T12:31:22.817245+00:00","note":"Coverage is observational sufficiency. zero observations ≠ stable relationship; DEMO-only ≠ empirical day."},"createdAt":"2026-09-03T11:41:15.298563+00:00","note":"smoke"}],"note":"Watch report is observational and scoped to periodStart..periodEnd for transition counts. ALERT drift ≠ order recommendation. Coverage separates empirical vs DEMO/NO_DATA/STALE.","source":"sql"},"quality":{"watchesActive":2,"watchesTotal":2,"states":{"WEAKENING":1},"drift":{"OK":1,"WARN":0,"ALERT":0,"UNKNOWN":1},"transitions":0,"coverage":{"empirical":1,"insufficientData":2,"demo":0}}}